Predict The Vote
Background
Biden's win in Georgia in 2020 was driven by massive margins with Black Voters in Atlanta and the black belt. Additionally, he received sizable support in Asian/Hispanic precincts, the educated north Atlanta suburbs, and many of the minor metros that dot the southern portion of the state (Savannah, Augusta, Macon, Columbus, etc.). Trump secured massive margins for himself in the heavily white north and deep south, but unlike in previous years, the votes netted out of these regions was not quite enough to offset the votes netted by the Democratic candidate in Atlanta, which had grown as a share of the state in the 21st century.
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How Trump Won in 2024
On its surface, the results in 2024 were incredibly similar to 4 years ago. The Democrats continued to win majorities of minority groups while Trump still won white voters by a significant margin. However, Trump made several inroads with key demographics. While still likely losing them overall, he improved substantially with Asian and Hispanic voters - indicated by the massive swings to the right in areas of Gwinnett and Fulton County. Additionally, while not likely as drastic as the other swings, he likely improved a couple percent with African-American voters, who also saw their turnout share drop from 2020.
Harris did make limited gains in the Atlanta Suburbs (the blue ring around Atlanta in the below map), likely due to the black population growth and high levels of educational attainment in these areas. However, these gains were much smaller than they had been 4 years ago, and nowhere near the amount needed to offset the losses in minority vote share and turnout.
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The Case for Democratic Optimism
Hidden in the details of these Trump gains in Georgia is the fact that he gained across the nation. In fact, for the first time since 1932, every single state shifted one direction from the past election (meaning all shifted towards Trump from 2020). Georgia's shift was actually much smaller, it only shifted 2.4% to the right as compared to the nationwide 6% swing.
This has become somewhat of a recurring pattern in Georgia, where the last 3 Presidential elections have seen trends (state swings - nationwide swings) to the left. This can be seen in the following chart:
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If this holds, it would mean Democratic victory in Georgia will continue to become easier and easier (relative the nation) to win in the future. For example, they could lose the national popular vote by 2.5% in 2028 and still win the state, assuming current trends. So, while the loss in Georgia this year is surely disappointing for local Democrats, it may be more accurate to interpret this as a byproduct of a bad national environment rather than a poor effort in Georgia specifically.
Of course, this does not guarantee the end of Republican dominance in Georgia. For one thing, the above trend has really only held since the advent of the Trump era of politics in 2016. With the emergence of another candidate in 2028, this trend could stagnate or even reverse. Evidence of this already exists at the state level, where Republican candidates, especially Governor Brian Kemp, have done better than the top of the ticket.
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Additionally, if the massive gains that the GOP has made with Hispanic and Asian voters can be replicated with African Americans, it would likely ensure they keep control for a significant time, as they represent about 30% of voters (the most of any swing state).
The Case for Republican Optimism
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